By Goldman Sach, 2022 11 18,
==> Dành cho Macro và Currencies Trader/Investment.
For most of the last three years, markets have primarily had to deal with a
common shock—the global pandemic—with FX performance dictated by global
risk sentiment and some variation in policy responses to that shock. Now as we
get set to embark on 2023, that environment is shifting into a new phase. The
Covid recovery has been uneven, policy tightening has been remarkably swift,
and the war in Ukraine has brought Europe to the brink of recession, with
potentially lasting physical constraints on activity. So far, this shifting landscape
has proven to be a meaningful boost for the US Dollar, which has benefited both
from the relative resilience of the economy and its safe-haven appeal to defy
already-lofty valuations. But, with monetary policy set to downshift, China
expected to loosen its grip on Covid controls, and Europe navigating through
more lasting physical constraints, we expect a more differentiated, tactical
environment in Global FX in 2023, marked by an eventual peak in the US Dollar.
2023 Global FX Outlook: Waiting for a Challenger
USD: In Thinner Air
EUR: Running on empty
CNY: Much Ado About Reopening
JPY: Two Roads, One Driver
GBP: Still Not Out of the Woods
MXN & BRL: Longs for a Longer US Cycle
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